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Global mean surface air temperature change
simulations for a doubling of CO2
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Year of publication
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Authors
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Climate change projection (°C)
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Type of model
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Origin of research group
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1980
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Manabe and Stouffer
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2.0
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GCM
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USA
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Manabe and Wetherald
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3.0
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GCM
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USA
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Potter
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2.3 (N. Hem.)
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GCM
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USA
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Wang and Stone
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2.0–4.2
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RCM
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USA
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1981
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Cess and Goldenberg
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1.5–1.8, 3.1
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EMB
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USA
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Charlock
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1.58–2.25
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RCM
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USA
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Gates et al.
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0.2
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GCM
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USA
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Hansen et al.
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1.2–3.9
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RCM
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USA
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Hummel and Reck
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1.71–2.05
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RCM
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USA
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Hunt
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0.69–1.82
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RCM
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Australia
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Kandel
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0.7–8.7
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EBM
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France
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Lacis et al.
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2.9
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RCM
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USA
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Ramanathan
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0.3, 2.3
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RCM
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USA
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Wang et al.
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1.47–2.80
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RCM
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USA
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Wetherald and Manabe
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2.4–3.0
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GCM
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USA
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1982
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Chou et al.
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2.3 (N. Hem.)
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EBM
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USA
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Gilliland
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2.26
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EBM
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USA
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Hall et al.
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2.4
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RCM
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USA
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Hummel
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1.29–1.83
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RCM
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USA
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Lindzen et al.
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1.46–1.93
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RCM
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USA
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Schlesinger
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2.0
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GCM
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USA
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1983
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Aleksandrov et al.
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1.4
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GCM
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former USSR
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Mitchell
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0.16, 2.25
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GCM
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UK
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Washington and Meehl
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1.3
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GCM
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USA
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1984
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Cess and Potter
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1.87
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SDMb
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USA
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Gilliland and Schneider
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1.6 (±0.3)
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EBM
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USA
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Hansen et al
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4.2–4.8
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GCM
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USA
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Lal and Ramanathan
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1.8–2.4
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RCM
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USA
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Somerville and Remer
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0.48–1.74
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RCM
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USA
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Washington and Meehl
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1.4–3.5
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GCM
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USA
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1985
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Liou et al.
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2.3
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RTMc
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USA
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Ou and Liou
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2.5–4.3
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RTM
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USA
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Owens et al.
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1.7
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RCM
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USA
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1986
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Dickinson
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3.7
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Washington and Meehl
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1.6
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GCM
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USA
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1987
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Mitchell and Warrilow
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5.2
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GCM
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UK
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Peng et al.
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2.6
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EBM
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USA
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Roeckner et al.
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3.3
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GCM
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Germany
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Wigley and Raper
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1.2–3.5
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EBM
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UK
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Wilson and Mitchell
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5.2
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GCM
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UK
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1988
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Wetherald and Manabe
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3.2–4.0
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GCM
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USA
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1989
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Mitchell et al.
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1.9–3.5
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GCM
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UK
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Noda and Tokioka
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4.3
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GCM
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Japan
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Schlesinger and Zhao
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2.8–4.4
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GCM
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USA/China
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Stouffer et al.
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4.0
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GCM
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USA
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Washington and Meehl
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4.0
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GCM
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USA
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1991
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Jentsch
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1.5–3.5
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EBM
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Germany
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Stenchikov
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1.4
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GCM
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former USSR
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Wang et al.
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4.2
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GCM
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USA
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Washington and Meehl
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1.6
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GCM
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USA
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1992
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Boer et al.
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3.5
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GCM
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Canada
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Cao et al.
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1.78–6.3
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RCM
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UK
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Cubasch et al.
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0.6–2.6
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GCM
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Germany
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Wigley and Raper
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1.5–3.4
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EBM
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UK
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1993
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Charnock and Shine
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1.5–2.4
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RCM
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UK
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Manabe and Stouffer
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3.5
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GCM
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USA
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Meehl et al.
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2.3
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GCM
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USA
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Senior and Mitchell
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1.9–5.4
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GCM
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UK
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Wang et al.
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1.75
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GCM
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China
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1994
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DeHann et al.
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1.9
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EBM
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Netherlands/Austria
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Gordon and Hunt
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4.0
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GCM
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Australia
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LeTreut et al.
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3.6–3.9
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GCM
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France
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Mahfouf et al.
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1.4
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GCM
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France
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Pollard and Thompson
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2.06–2.27
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GCM
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USA
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1995
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Rind et al.
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4.2–4.8
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GCM
|
USA
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Source: COMPARISON OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATIONS
FOR 2 × CO2-INDUCED WARMING
Kavita Kacholia and Ruth A. Reck
Climatic Change, January 1997, 53-69
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