WASHINGTON -- Despite a booming economy, emissions of man-made carbon dioxide remained almost flat in the U.S. last year, and global emissions appear to have dropped.
That has led some experts to believe the economic shock of complying with international pollution curbs aimed at stemming global warming may not be so jolting.
Until now, some government and private industry projections have assumed economic growth is linked to energy consumption, particularly the burning of oil, gas and other fossil fuels that release carbon dioxide. carbon dioxide is the main "greenhouse gas" many scientists believe is overheating the planet by trapping more of the sun's rays in the atmosphere.
Thinning Carbon Dioxide Even while the U.S. economy roared, 1998 carbon-dioxide emissions were flat, easing compliance with international treaties:
Emission
(millions of tons)Intensity*
(tons/$ millions of GDP)Chg. from
1997U.S. 1,606 199.1 +0.4% China 883 213.4 -3.7 E.U. 603 116.6 -0.9 Russia 440 717.2 -1.3 Japan 327 111.1 -2.5 India 304 178.2 +1.8 World 6,950 168.3 -0.5 *Relates how much carbon dioxide a country emits to the size of its economy, as measured by gross domestic product, or economic output.
Source: Worldwatch InstituteBut in 1998, a year when the U.S. economy grew almost 4% and the price of gasoline dropped to records, carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. barely moved, rising only 0.04%, according to a Department of Energy report. "I think there's a decent chance that we're seeing a significant change," said Christopher Flavin, vice president of Worldwatch Institute, a Washington environmental think tank.
Mr. Flavin's group sees the same phenomenon happening globally. It believes the trend, if it continues, could make the political decisions required by the Kyoto Treaty to curb global warming less difficult. The treaty, which the U.S. Congress has yet to ratify, requires the U.S. to cut carbon dioxide emissions, measured against 1990 levels, by 7% starting in 2008.
"Kyoto is still going to be a stretch for some countries," Mr. Flavin said, "but the amount of emissions trading needed and the degree of domestic effort may turn out to be significantly less than everyone expected."
Because many experts assumed economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions move in lockstep, they had predicted the U.S. might have to impose an economy-wrenching emissions cut of 30% to 40% by 2008, when the treaty's schedule of emissions curbs begins. One safety valve planned by the Clinton administration is emissions trading, which would let U.S. companies buy permits -- from other companies or countries that have exceeded the treaty's targets -- to emit additional carbon dioxide. This has provoked a fight with European nations that want emissions trading to be limited.
But flat or slumping emissions could defuse some of this tension. "Most of this is due to market forces," said Howard Geller, executive director at American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, a nonprofit Washington research firm that represents business and academic groups. He and Mr. Flavin see the rise of the information sector, which features industries with light carbon dioxide emission levels, and the increasing use of more energy-efficient machines and appliances as two major factors that appear to have caused emissions to remain nearly level in 1998.
Roger S. Ballentine, a White House lawyer who handles the climate change issue, says the full statistical picture of what happened in the energy sector in 1998 is incomplete. "What we've got so far is a snapshot, but it certainly is consistent with what we've been saying, which is you can grow the economy and reduce emissions at the same time."
Mr. Ballentine is about to depart for China, a key player in the Kyoto deliberations. China also has produced some recent statistical surprises. According to Mr. Flavin, China's economy grew 7% last year, while its use of coal fell 5%. Mr. Ballentine attributes the drop in coal use to efforts by Chinese officials to remove subsidies that have favored lavish use of coal, which has fouled the air of many Chinese cities.
The Clinton administration will need China and other developing nations to become involved in the Kyoto Treaty to get Congress to ratify it. Lawmakers here are reluctant to put the U.S. at an economic disadvantage with the emission cuts if other nations don't follow suit. But data of energy use from China and Eastern Europe also indicate emissions levels there are dropping because industries are leaping into the information economy, too.
So far, the slump in emissions has been documented by two studies. A preview of a report by the DOE's Energy Information Administration on use of fossil fuels in 1998 shows that despite the rapid growth of the economy, emissions from the U.S. industrial sector fell 1.2% last year. Separately, a Worldwatch analysis of 1998 energy data gathered by BP Amoco PLC shows global emissions declined 0.5% last year, while the world economy expanded 2.5%.
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