Does it seem hot in here?

Editorial Atlanta Journal and Constitution December 10, 1998

Springtime in December isn't really such a strange occurrence. It happens every year . . . in Australia.

However, for the northern hemisphere, this month's spooky warm spell --- affecting not just Atlanta but also the entire East Coast --- is more than a little odd. When folks are water-skiing on Lake Erie a few weeks before Christmas, it does tend to get your attention.

Of course, this December springtime does not prove that global warming is occurring. Likewise, the renewed spate of hurricane activity is not by itself evidence that global warming is under way. The fact that the 1990s has been the warmest decade on record does not, by itself, prove that global warming is a reality. And just because 1997 was the warmest year on record, and that 1998 will end up being warmer still, doesn't mean that the climate is changing rapidly.

Even confirmation that the Earth's warming this century is unprecedented for at least the previous 11 centuries does not prove that global warming has become a reality. But people such as Jonathan Overpeck, head of the paleoclimatology program for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, are more than a little worried.

''There is no period that we can recognize in the past 1,200 years that was as warm on a global basis,'' Overpeck told the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union this week. ''That makes what we're now seeing more unusual and more difficult to explain without turning to a 'greenhouse gas' mechanism.''

Other scientists warn that if global warming is truly occurring, the somewhat subtle changes we are seeing today aren't our real worry. They point out that complex systems such as climate tend to stay relatively stable for a long time, absorbing pressure for change until it reaches a tipping point. Once that point is reached, major change occurs quickly, in a relative snap of the fingers. Such rapid and abrupt climate change would make it difficult for plant and animal species to adapt, particularly when many of those species are already under stress, thanks to other man-made pressures.

Few scientists are willing to state with absolute certainty that global warming is a reality. They admit that they are trying to predict the workings of a very complicated system based on relatively crude computer models. Those whose economic interests are most threatened by concern about global warming --- the oil and coal companies, carmakers, electric utilities --- cite that admitted uncertainty as an excuse to do little or nothing to address the possibility.

Instead, that candor about the limitations of science ought to make us listen more carefully to what they are trying to tell us. These are not revolutionaries or special-interest pleaders; they are our best scientific minds, trying to tell us as clearly as their profession allows that they think we've got trouble ahead.

Otherwise, here we sit, frogs in a saucepan with the heat on simmer, telling one another that yes, the water does seem a little warmer than it used to be. A little warmer, just a little warmer, nothing to worry about, really . . .

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