Despite December's chill, the heat is on

Editorial Copyright 1998 Buffalo News December 25, 1998

White Christmas or not, this year is likely to go into the record books as the warmest in a long time. New evidence, in fact, suggests that 1998 could claim the warmest global average temperature in more than a millennium.

That's not necessarily good news. It adds fuel to the already heated debate over global warming, and it raises fears that even more warmth -- complete with increased storms, agricultural and sea-level disruptions and a range of other impacts -- could be yet to come.

As the year wanes, this much is clear: Mild temperatures in early December made it very likely that 1998 will be the warmest year in this part of the world since regional records were first kept in 1895. The Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University, in fact, noted that more than 100 high-temperature records were broken or tied in major Northeastern cities during the first 61/2 days of this month alone.

Regional weather shouldn't be confused with global climate. But that's also the point of yet another study, reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during this month's American Geophysical Union meetings. Scientists have shown that the so-called "Medieval Warm Period" of six centuries ago was regional, not global.

That makes it harder to argue that some natural phenomenon is behind this century's warming -- which now seems unprecedented, over at least the past 1,200 years.

Mild weather in this region is welcome, but it may carry a future price. A series of global summits have tried to deal with that threat, but the Senate has yet to debate the international accord signed by 60 nations earlier this year to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.

Although there's still room for debate over the level of risk in global warming or the extent of pollution-limiting measures needed to combat it, historical records and paleoclimate research alike show the heat is on. Mankind, through industrialization and other climate-impacting activities, seems to be running a one-way experiment with the earth's atmosphere -- and it makes strong sense to take steps now to slow the process.

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