Warm days in November not unusual for Houston

By T. J. Milling Copyright 1998 Houston Chronicle November 30, 1998

It may have seemed like an unseasonably warm November, but it really hasn't been much above the normal on average, the National Weather Service said Sunday.

"There's no great planetary mystical thing taking place," NWS Meteorologist Steve Allen said. "It's just been warm."

Allen said the biggest reason for the mild weather is that the polar jet stream is not doing its usual thing to the South. The belt of cold air is deflected off its course by mountain ranges, causing sinusoidal wave fronts that usually dip far enough south to give Houston a cold snap a few times a year.

This year it generally has stayed well north of town.

"We stay south of that, we stay warm," Allen said.

The average temperatures in September and October were four and three degrees above normal, respectively. November looks like it will come in a little above average as well.

But Allen said the truly unusual event is to have a "normal" day or month, when the temperature is right on the average. That's because the normal is calculated by averaging the temperatures that occurred on a given calendar day from 1960 to 1990. The normal will be recalculated at the end of the decade to reflect averages from 1970 to 2000.

Given the global warming trend, Allen said, the "normal" temperatures will always lag behind the current temperatures.

The holiday weekend may also have played a part in the perception of warmer-than-normal weather. People have been out in their yards instead of in their air-conditioned offices, Allen noted.

A weak front is moving into the area today and will bring a 40 percent chance of rain and drive temperatures down into the 50s tonight, which is pretty close to normal.

But until then, the temperatures will be in the upper 70s.

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