Global warming trends have yet to be proven

By John Switzer Copyright 1998 Columbus Dispatch December 22, 1998

I received an unsigned note the other day that read: Do you still not believe in global warming, you conservative old goat?

Dear Mr./Ms. Anonymous: I'm not yet convinced we are in the midst of harmful global warming. Too many folks smarter than I say you can't judge that over just a short time.

Last winter was mild because of weather patterns caused by El Nino. But while we were having record warmth in November and December, folks were dying in Europe of extreme cold.

Ken Reeves, a meteorologist for Accu-Weather, said the minimum time needed to determine climate change is usually 30 years. A century is even better.

We've had warming and cooling periods throughout time. Consider the Dust Bowl years, when many of central Ohio's heat records were set. Four of our six warmest years in Columbus were in the 1930s.

Three of our coldest years were 1972, 1976 and 1978 - not 30 years in the past.

"We are modifying our atmosphere, but the long-term effect is purely up to conjecture," Reeves said.

John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville and Roy Spencer of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration monitor global temperatures in the troposphere (up to 4 miles above the Earth) with NASA satellites.

If there is warming, Christy said, it isn't dramatic and pales compared with other environmental problems, including habitat destruction and the fact that "1.2 billion people don't have access to clean water."

During the '90s, Christy has found about the same number of months with below-average global temperatures as above-average. Since 1979, Christy's data show a temperature rise of 0.06 of a degree Celsius per decade (0.1 Fahrenheit.)

"That is really not a trend whereabouts on the surface (of the Earth) the data show a dramatic trend upward," he said.

Why such a difference is the $ 64 question, he said.

"Models show that the troposphere should actually warm up faster than the layer in which we live," he said.

P.S., Mr./Ms. Anonymous: I'm going to wait a little longer before I make up my mind. And for your information, I'm finicky about the environment.

Button up, Mr./Ms. Anonymous: Low temperatures will be in the single digits tonight.

Today will be windy and much colder, with snow showers.

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