The level of water in the Chesapeake Bay is rising twice as fast as the worldwide average sea level increase, and scientists are taking a closer look into the phenomenon.
The bay's water level is increasing a little more than an inch per decade in the middle portions of the 200-mile waterway. The rate is even higher at the bay's mouth, where tide gauges show the increase is about 1.6 inches per decade.
Water levels are almost 4 feet higher now than at the time of the Jamestown settlement in 1607, said Curtis Larsen, a geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, which is examining the sea level rise.
"It's an eye-opener," Larsen said Thursday.
The cause is in dispute, but global warming appears to be a factor, he said.
Sediment cores drilled by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science about 25 years ago showed the long-term rate of increase was about a half-inch per year until the 1600s, when it began to accelerate.
"That means this is by and large a long-term natural process, but we also think there's clearly a man-induced component," Larsen said. "If all the computer models we're looking at are correct, we can attribute some part of the increase to global warming."
The geological survey began drilling core samples from the Patuxtent River shoreline near Solomons Island, Md., last month to compare with the earlier VIMS data taken along the York and Rappahannock rivers, Larsen said.
The survey is also examining other areas, including Westmoreland County marshes in Popes Creek for evidence of changes in the earth's crust that are causing shorelines to sink. A broad band of tidal marshes in Popes Creek has disappeared in the past 30 years.
Larsen said a combination of rising sea level and land subsidence in the Chesapeake Bay region appears to be accelerating shoreline erosion.
The erosion is turning some marshes into pollution sources, a significant role reversal since marsh vegetation is often credited with filtering water and capturing sediments, nutrients and other impurities.
But rich beds of underwater grasses that provide crucial hiding places for baby crabs and fish in Tangier Sound are smothering in sediment washed from the rapidly disappearing Blackwater Wildlife Refuge marshes in Maryland.
"What washes out from the undercut banks of the marshes is very fine sediments" that shade the grasses from the sun and cause them to die, said John Page Williams, a naturalist with the Chesapeake Bay Foundation.
Larsen said the geological survey hopes to drill the core samples it needs by the end of this year and begin studying the findings in 2000.
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