Deceiving numbers; Breast cancer risk often overestimated

By Jim Ritter Copyright 1999 Chicago Sun-Times January 22, 1999

It's one of the most commonly quoted statistics in medicine: One in nine women will get breast cancer.

The figure pops up repeatedly in medical journals and the media. While accurate, the statistic can "distort the public's perception of the risk," according to a recent report in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The statistic refers to a woman's cumulative risk of getting breast cancer if she lives past age 85. But in any given decade, her risk is far lower.

A woman has a 1-in-250 chance of getting breast cancer in her 30s, a 1-in-77 chance in her 40s, a 1-in-43 chance in her 50s, a 1-in-38 chance in her 60s and a 1-in-42 chance in her 70s.

Other diseases take a similar or higher toll. In a group of 1,000 women, the potential years of life they can expect to lose because of breast cancer totals 463, compared to 1,553 years lost to cardiovascular disease and 460 years lost to lung cancer.

Statistics should be put in context so that women do not become "disproportionately frightened" by breast cancer or overlook other preventable causes of illness and death, said the report, written by three Canadian breast cancer experts.

Breast cancer advocacy groups often quote the one-in-nine statistic "because it would draw attention to the cause," said Debbie Saslow of the American Cancer Society.

"We avoid using it," she said. "We make efforts to explain why it is misleading. . . . We do not want women to be more afraid of breast cancer then they need to be."

A woman's risk of getting breast cancer increases with age. More than 75 percent of all cases occur in women older than 50, Saslow said.

Younger women tend to overestimate their risk, and older women tend to underestimate their risk, she said.

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