Ice Age may be 50,000 years late

By Nigel Hawkes Copyright 1999 The Times January 6, 1998

MAN-MADE global warming may postpone the arrival of the next Ice Age, the conference was told. Instead of ice spreading down across Scotland and the North of England within the next 55,000 years, the deep freeze may be delayed for a further 50,000 years or more, Paul Burgess, of the University of East Anglia, said.

The ice will certainly come, however, as a result of changes in the Earth's orbit, tilt and precession - the process by which the seasons shift slowly over time.

Using a computer model developed at the University of Louvain in Belgium, Mr Burgess and his colleagues Jean Palutikof and Clare Goodess combined these long-term cycles with the burning of fossil fuels, which produces the carbon dioxide that contributes to global warming.

Mr Burgess said that, using carbon dioxide levels found in ice cores, the model correctly identified the extent of the last glacial maximum, when ice spread over Scotland and much of northern England and Wales.

Given natural levels of carbon dioxide, the model predicts a similar ice coverage in between 55,000 and 60,000 years. Calculating man-made global warming at moderate levels delays the growth of ice, but when growth starts it is much swifter and a complete glaciation is achieved on the same timescale.

Only if extreme global warming is assumed is there any delay in glaciation, but it will still occur about 110,000 years from now.

NET LINKS

http: / www.geog.le.ac.uk Conference programme on the Leicester University Geography Department website

http: / www.rgs.org The Royal Geographical Society - Institute of British Geographers site

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