At the beginning of the 20th century, the world's population was only 635 million. The global population is expected to reach 6 billion on Oct. 12 this year. And over the next 50 years, this figure could grow to around 8.9 billion in spite of abnormal weather caused by global warming.
Will modern civilization be able to continue on the trajectory of expansion that began with the Roman Empire? Global warming, the destruction of the ozone layer, the extinction of entire species and the spread of desertification suggest that there are physical limits to human expansion. Yet during times of economic uncertainty, the pressure to pursue expansion increases.
Industrial development and environmental destruction are two sides of the same coin. Market liberalization and globalization have had unforeseen consequences for the environment. Japan's decision to begin liberalizing imports of lumber products in the 1960s contributed to the depredation of tropical rain forests in the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. The mountains of garbage discarded on reclaimed land in Tokyo Bay are a testament to excessive consumption paid for by the strong yen.
In the 21st century, Asia will have to discover a path to sustainable development that achieves a balance between population, natural resources and industry. Since Japan's population will peak in 2008 at 127.78 million and then dwindle to 100.5 million by 2050, and per-capita consumption by Japanese consumers has already reached the saturation point, it will be possible for Japan to reduce the pressure that it exerts on Asia's environment.
However, the conditions prevailing in most Asian countries are different. The population of Asia as a whole is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.4 percent. Since the number of poor is expected to rise as industries stagnate, natural resources will come under additional pressure. As China's population of 1.27 billion earn more money, their consumption of coal, a dirty energy source, will also surge.
Without a bare minimum level of food, medicine and education, developing countries will not be able to guarantee decent living standards for their people -- a prerequisite to eradicating social inequality, preserving a balance between development and the ecosystem, and achieving sustainable development. Such objectives can only be achieved with economic growth of 5 percent a year between 1996 and 2010. But the advanced industrialized nations will have to cut back their emissions of contaminants by 4.4 percent per year over the same period in order to preserve the quality of the global environment at current levels.
Japan's success in achieving its goal of reducing its average emissions of carbon dioxide between 2008 and 2012 to 5 percent less than its output in 1990 will determine whether the rest of Asia will be able to develop in a sustainable manner. Today, Japan's emissions of contaminants per 1 dollar of industrial output are the lowest in the world. We hope that Japan's efficient technology for using energy and raw materials can be transferred to help other countries achieve sustainable development.
As an economic superpower, Japan will have to assert leadership in the area of environmental protection in order to build an industrial society with a future and maintain the stability of the Japanese economy.
(From the Mainichi Shimbun, Jan. 5)
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