Pumped Up: U.S. Government Statistics on HIV

John M. Karon, Philip S. Rosenberg, Geraldine McQuillan, and Meena Khare, Marta Gwinn, and Lyle Petersen JAMA 1996;276:126-131

In 1986, the U.S. Public Health Service (PHS) estimated that the number of U.S. residents infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) ranged between 1.0 million to 1.5 million.

In 1990, four years later and presumably while the AIDS epidemic was on the rise, the PHS estimated that 800,000 to 1.2 million U.S. residents were infected.

Now in 1996, researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate the number of U.S. residents infected with HIV, as of 1992, was actually between 650,000 to 900,000.

Although AIDS clearly remains a public health concern, what about the accuracy of the government statistics? The upper end of CDC's 1996 range of estimates for the 1992 infection rate doesn't even overlap the lower end of the PHS' 1986 range!

Is this an innocent case of poor estimation on the part of the PHS? Or did Hans and Franz "pump up" the numbers on purpose?

In either case, doesn't this make you wonder about the accuracy of other U.S. government statistics? Does radon really kill 10,000 to 40,000 every year? Is smoking really responsible for 400,000-plus deaths? Are 130 million really at risk of cancer from chlorinated drinking water?

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