Copyright © 1995, 1997 by Steven J. Milloy. All rights reserved. First edition. Published by the Cato Institute, 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20002. Library of Congress Catalog Number: 95-72177. International Standard Book Number: 0-9647463-2-8.
Chapter 14
A Final Word All right, so it's 1996 and we're about 20 years into the public health gold rush. How much longer will it last? How much longer before the general public realizes Americans are healthier and living longer than ever before? Well, past is prologue, so I'm confident the public health gold rush is far from over.
Consider alchemy, the ancient art that sought to transmute base metals, such as lead, into silver and gold. It was the forerunner of the modern chemistry — and maybe even meta-analysis? Alchemy appeared back in the 5th century B.C. and lasted well into the Middle Ages. It didn't fall into disrepute until some alchemists became obsessed with a quest for the secrets of transmutation and adopted deceptive methods of experimentation. Hmmm... you don't think... nah, it'll take forever for the public to figure out the shady type of risk assessment.
Then there's astrology. Astrology is the practice of foreseeing future events through omens or signs. (Do you think a statistical association is an omen?) It's based on the theory that the movements of celestial bodies influence human affairs and the course of events. Astrology was first practiced by the Assyrians (around the first millennium B.C.) and continued as a serious form of study into the 17th century when Christian theologists waged all-out war against it. Although their work eventually helped undermine it, the most famous early scientists, including Copernicus, Tycho Brahe, Johannes Kepler, Galileo, René Descartes and Isaac Newton, were all practicing astrologers.
In contrast, science, as defined by the scientific method, is still relatively young. Using this discipline, we learn things about our world slowly, over time, through piece-by-piece observation and experimentation. Science is not a quick-n-dirty, one-study endeavor. It has served mankind well over time, but we've seen fit to shunt it to the side, particularly recently, in the name of public health. Fortunately for the ambitious, this trend does not appear likely to change anytime soon.
So the big question is: "Will this guide be of any practical use in the future?" The answer, unfortunately, is "Yes, and for years to come."
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