A warning out of thin air
Editorial
Copyright 1998 Atlanta Journal and Constitution
August 19, 1998
Sometimes, we humans do what's right in spite of the shortsightedness that
afflicts our species. Look how we responded to the threat to the Earth's ozone
layer.
The ozone layer, more than 15 miles up in the atmosphere, deflects much of the
sun's harmful radiation back into space, and for that reason it is essential to
life
on this planet. So, more than a decade ago, the nations of the world met in
Montreal and agreed to reduce and eventually phase out man-made chemicals, such
as chlorofluorocarbons used as refrigerants and coolants, that threatened to
destroy the ozone layer.
The decision came just in time. Scientists this summer are warning that the
concentration of ozone-depleting chemicals in the upper atmosphere is higher
than ever and is likely to get even worse in the next few years. Increased
solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface will produce skin cancer,
cataracts and
weakened immune systems, not just in humans but in animals as well.
The scientists' warning is not evidence that the Montreal Protocol failed.
Rather, it is testimony to how close we came to calamity.
It can take years for ozone-destroying chemicals to make their way from
ground level into the upper atmosphere, and once in the stratosphere those
chemicals can last for as long as four centuries. Most of the chemicals now
causing trouble with the ozone layer were produced before the 1987 Montreal
Protocol took effect. Scientists predict that it will be another 10 years
before we begin to see measurable declines in the concentration of
ozone-destroying chemicals, and well into the next century before ozone levels
reach anything approaching historic levels.
In the years leading up to the Montreal agreement, industry representatives
argued that the scientific evidence for ozone destruction was
weak, and that banning the suspect chemicals would cost thousands of jobs and
billions of dollars. President Reagan's science adviser and secretary of the
interior suggested it might be more cost-effective if Americans just stayed
indoors or wore hats and sunglasses. They were wrong, of course. The conversion
to substitute chemicals has proved far
less costly and disruptive than predicted.
But even now, long after any scientific doubt on the issue has been resolved,
some conservative members of Congress are still trying to force the United
States to repudiate the Montreal deal.
That's more than a mere history lesson. Much the same do-nothing
arguments from much the same do-nothing crowd are being heard today regarding
the
global-warming issue. And as we work through this discussion, it's important to note that the
consequences of
global warming dwarf those of ozone depletion and that the time frame for reversing
climate change is far longer.
In fact, most
scientists warn that if we stay our current course, we risk a dramatic shift in
the Earth's climate, a serious rise in ocean levels and more extreme storms and
other weather phenomena, such as drought, floods and this summer's deadly heat
wave in much of the country.
We can ignore those
warnings if we choose. But our children and grandchildren may find it hard to
ignore the legacy of our greed and selfishness.
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