Growing Evidence Suggests Solar Radiation Could Account for Virtually All of the Warming since the End of the Little Ice Age
WASHINGTON, D.C., AUGUST 7, 1998--Compared to natural climate changes spurred by the sun, any global warming resulting from increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would be slow and insignificant, according to astrophysicist Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. Speaking today at a briefing for Congressional staff, Dr. Baliunas said the scientific evidence for the link between solar variability and shifts in climate only began to emerge in the last decade or so, creating a growing interest among scientists in this field of research.
The sun-climate link casts new doubts on the reliability of computer models that base their climate change scenarios on changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It has long been noted that actual observations of global temperatures have been inconsistent with model forecasts. Nearly all of the 1 degree F warming over the last century occurred before 1940; nearly all of the increases in greenhouse gas concentrations occurred after 1940. Dr. Baliunas pointed out that global temperatures over the last 19 years, according to satellite and balloon-based measurements, have been flat.
Dr. Baliunas scoffed at statements that temperatures have been the warmest in 600 years, saying that most scientists feel the climate has simply been recovering from the "Little Ice Age," a 450-year period of much colder temperatures that destroyed settlements in Greenland and led to crop failures and famine over much of Europe.
"It's true that it's warmer today than in the year 1400, but so what," she said. "That was the beginning of the Little Ice Age." She displayed graphs showing that temperatures were warmer than today 1000, 3000, and 6500 years ago. The Earth, she said, has already experienced warmer temperatures and more rapid climate changes than those forecast by models. She also pointed out that during those warm periods, carbon dioxide levels remained flat, and therefore could not have been the cause. Interestingly, she said, research indicates that during the last warm period, El Nino events were not stronger and more frequent, they disappeared.
Hasty, poorly thought-through policies are uncalled for, said Dr. Baliunas. Even under the most extreme, computer-generated scenario, a delay of 30 years would produce a negligible difference in temperature. It would make a very significant difference, however, in achieving a better understanding of climate change, man-made or natural, and would mean more affordable mitigation and adaptation due to technological advances.
Dr. Baliunas' briefing for Congressional staff was hosted by the National Consumer Coalition's Climate Change Working Group--the "Cooler Heads." Asked if she had experienced any retaliation because of her research, she replied, "I am a very strong person. I would not stand for that." She added, however, that she was "dismayed" by the incivility of the climate change debate. "This is straightforward science. The computer models forecast a warming [due to increased greenhouse gases]; the observations do not agree."
FOR MORE INFORMATION, a copy of Dr. Baliunas' prepared speech, or to arrange an interview, call Emily McGee at (202) 331-1010.
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The National Consumer Coalition's Climate Change Working Group--the "Cooler Heads"--consists of consumer, scientific, and free-market economic organizations, including the Competitive Enterprise Institute, American Policy Center, Americans for Tax Reform, Association of Concerned Taxpayers, Center for Security Policy, Citizens for a Sound Economy, Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, Consumer Alert, Frontiers of Freedom, Heritage Foundation, Independent Institute, National Center for Policy Analysis, National Center for Public Policy Research, Pacific Research Institute, Advancement of Sound Science Coalition, Reason Public Policy Institute, Seniors Coalition, 60-Plus, Small Business Survival Committee, and the George C. Marshall Institute. Mr. Marlo Lewis of the Competitive Enterprise Institute is "Cooler Heads" chairman.
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