Ripe tomatoes in Alaska but Seattle's under water

By Bill Hall Copyright 1998 Lewiston Morning Tribune August 29, 1998

The evidence is starting to get a little lopsided that this planet actually is experiencing a greenhouse effect and that we will need to deal with it if we don't want to find ourselves up to our armpits in melted polar ice.

Not only was this July the hottest month on record in the world but the month it eclipsed for the record was the previous July. And some scientists see signs that 1998 is on its way to becoming the warmest year in several centuries.

There are other records in recent years that, together, constitute a fairly serious indication this isn't just a normal cycle in the weather or a manifestation of El Nio.

On the other hand, periods of cold and heat, like droughts, come and go. So uncommonly warm or uncommonly cold weather doesn't necessarily mean much. And most people have rather poor memories for weather. For instance, the several days over 100 here this summer may have seemed extreme but this is far from the first time Lewiston has experienced that. Indeed, recent summers with only three or four days over 100 are probably closer to abnormal in this hot valley.

But the troubling part of worldwide weather in recent years is not 10 hot highs in one valley, it is the high temperature on average throughout the planet. It is still theoretically feasible that this is a fluke, a cycle. But most scientists no longer think so. The bulk of the scientific community is persuaded more and more that the greenhouse effect is showing itself now, in our lifetime, and not merely in the future of our children and grandchildren.

What seems to be happening now is a logical result of changing the composition of the blanket of air over our world resulting in a mix that will, like a greenhouse, let warmth in and then trap it here.

What's wrong with a warmer world? Wouldn't it be fun to have a world in which more people could ripen a backyard tomato?

For one thing, an artificially warm world could cause droughts in productive agricultural areas. The polar caps would melt and flood coastal cities around the world. The steamy, smoggy warmth of recent years is already believed to be responsible for a massive increase in childhood asthma. It contributes to other diseases as well.

The drawbacks of a greenhouse effect would outweigh the advantages, not to mention the cost and disruption from permanent changes in the weather such as moving huge cities to higher ground.

Vice President Al Gore is among those at the forefront of believing the evidence of global warming is overwhelming enough to warrant steps toward reversing that process by uniting the nations of the world on changing current emissions practices. But a thing like that takes lead time. Indeed, the United States and a few other nations have already taken steps toward cleaning up their act. But that is only the beginning.

Frankly, common sense tells you it probably isn't prudent to be changing the nature of our air even if a greenhouse effect isn't one of the results. The people and other creatures of our planet are probably built to thrive on the kind of air that has been the norm until now. It makes sense to try to keep it that way.

Maybe this is all hypercautious. Maybe common sense fails us in this instance and it really doesn't do much harm at all to pour all that stuff into the air. Maybe the day will come when we learn the air is fine.

But don't hold your breath. -- B.H.

Quote of note

This most excellent canopy, the air, look you, this brave o'erhanging firmament, this majestical roof fretted with golden fire, why, it appears no other thing to me but a foul and pestilent congregation of vapors." -- William Shakespeare

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