U.S. Dubious of Global Warming Pact

By H. Josef Hebert Copyright 1998 Associated Press November 1, 1998

Faced with intense opposition in Congress, the administration no longer expects a global warming treaty to be ratified before President Clinton leaves office in two years.

As representatives from more than 160 countries gather this week in Argentina for a 12-day United Nations conference to try to flesh out details of the climate agreement, U.S. negotiators are cautioning against expecting too much.

''We don't expect major breakthroughs,'' said Undersecretary of State Stuart Eizenstat, heading the U.S. delegation to Buenos Aires as he did to the climate conference in Kyoto, Japan, almost a year ago.

Beyond the conference, administration officials have become resigned to lengthy negotiations, with no resolution for years on participation by poorer countries and other details.

That probably will make it impossible to submit it to Congress for ratification until after the 2000 presidential elections, in which global warming could become a major issue given Vice President Al Gore's commitment to the Kyoto accord.

After agreement was reached in Kyoto last December for industrial nations to slash greenhouse gas emissions, U.S. officials had high hopes this week's conference in Buenos Aires would produce further agreements on implementation that would make the pact easier to sell to a critical Congress.

But while there has been a smattering of progress in the past year, the months since Kyoto have found the administration often on the defensive. Instead of campaigning for the treaty, the White House for months found itself battling to prevent climate-related budget cuts and a potential congressional gag order that would have barred officials from even talking about climate change.

Eventually the administration wrangled more money from Congress on climate change programs and turned back the gag order. But some environmentalists complained that the administration has let critics dictate debate on the treaty.

With the Buenos Aires negotiations about to get under way, there still is no sign of a breakthrough toward resolution of one of the thorniest issues: How to convince developing countries such as China and India that they must commit to reduce emissions under the treaty as well.

The reductions cuts below 1990 emission levels by 2008-2012 _ currently apply only to 38 industrial countries including 15-member European Union, Russia, Japan and the United States.

Eizenstat conceded an agreement is nowhere in sight with India and China, whose greenhouse emissions are expected to exceed those of the United States by 2015.

''There's still a considerable amount of resistance'' on the developing countries question, Eizenstat said at a meeting with reporters.

U.S. negotiators also are struggling all of a sudden to get approval for another critical element of the Kyoto pact that is essential if the administration is going to sell the treaty at home and not harm the U.S. economy.

The administration argues economic costs will be modest if carbon emission credits can be traded among nations. U.S. businesses may purchase such credits when they find it cheaper than actually reducing carbon dioxide from their own factories, cars and power plants.

Europeans and developing countries argue that such a provision would let the United States meet its commitments and still not significantly reduce its flow of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere.

The twin issues of developing country participation and pollution permit trading has left the United States walking a precarious line.

On the one hand, the administration needs unfettered emissions trading and some commitment of the developing countries participation to sell the Kyoto treaty in Congress and among moderate business interests.

But developing nations and Europeans argue the United States has to show it is doing more domestically to curb greenhouse emissions if it is going to get the trading scheme. And countries like China and India have no interest in even talking about accepting pollution targets until the United States demonstrates its emissions are being cut back.

Eizenstat warned against putting restrictions on pollution trading, fearing a ''public backlash'' without such flexibility that would make U.S. ratification impossible.

The apparent impasse has many environmentalists worried that the Kyoto accord, hailed as a historic watershed in addressing worries about global warming, may unravel.

''Expectations are being pulled way down,'' said Christopher Flavin, senior vice president of the Worldwatch Institute, an environmental think tank. ''This past year it became clear the climate was going crazy, and the Kyoto treaty was going nowhere.''

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